Seeking alpha
Apple generated 54 billion in revenue, 13 billion in profit on the quarter.Google generated 14 billion in revenue, 2.89 billion in profit.Apple stock takes a 50 point hit in after hours trading.Google stock gained 40 point today.Im long google and happy with the jump in value however, my investor sanity module questions the obvious crazy nature of this market.
I don't buy the pie in the sky"Growth"Factors over profit that is being pushed by many investors.Apple's slowing growth should be a concern to long term investors in a couple of years.If the trend continues, however, currently the profits generated by apple are simply put amazing!
Underlying theme:The global economy has topped and is going down.We have already had our harvest.
We call this leadership?The fed sells the vix 24/7 to try to pretend that stocks can't go down.The fed needs to be sued for generating a corrupt las vegas out of wall street: "The house cannot lose".
Apple is a great company;The global economy is dead.Apple was overpriced.Now apple is trying to settle.Does the world need apple products;Or does the world just like them?Is steve job's replacement a magician, or just a technician if the latter, then the magic might be gone. (He doesn't strike me as being a magician.Functionary engineer more likely. )
Have you ever seen something dead?A person, a dog, a computer, a company?
Dead is a irreversible non functional state.
Why make extreme statements such as this?
How does this contribute meaningfully to discourse, analysis and discussion?
Worldwide employment continues to grow as does productivity.Worldwide r is the highest it has ever been.Oil production is at an all time high.Computer use, cell phone use, air travel, shipping.By any measure are at all time highs.Do you think peoples' desire for a better life, an improved standard of living is going to slow down?
The imf's world economic outlook anticipates global growth at 3.5 percent in 2013.There are hot spots and cold spots to be sure.But overall, continued economic expansion, improved worker productivity and aggregate improvements in standard of living are very likely to occur.
Please support your claim that"The global economy is dead".
Predict apple ends tomorrow at exactly where it finished today.There is negative for the uber bulls in that numbers did not crush.There will be relief that it was not much worse as was feared by many.
Y/y growth of 18% or so is not bad.Guidance is probably a bit better than expected.Analysts probably raise their march quarter expectations and full year expectations a bit.Valuation is so low that stock probably rises but wtf knows.This certainly was not the blowout that some folks expected/hoped for.
One of funny things is that all those strangles are probably worthless cheap ralph lauren yeah stock is way down now, but if you dig into the numbers you can easily see a no big deal one way or another with most likely result being a wash.
Margins do matter.Apple's 1q13 revenues were 17.7% greater than revenues in 1Q12.Earnings/revenues for 1q13 were 23.7%, down sharply from 28% in 1Q12.Consensus revenues for 2q13 are 16% greater than for 2q12.Using the consensus 16% revenue increase for 2q13, 3q13, and 4q13, and using earnings/revenues of 23.7% for these 3 quarters, earnings for 2013 will be the same(Within pennies)As for 2012.If they can improve margins, there will be a single digit increase in earnings yoy.Either way, there now is enough evidence of a total slowdown in earnings growth.If earnings grow by 5% yoy, the peg will be around 2, and the stock cannot be considered cheap.
I believe aapl management does not care about short term fluctuations.They almost seem to run the biz like a private company.Splitting the stock would only increase speculation, and i interpret their reluctance to bump up dividends as disavowing the idea that they're not some slow growth value company.We will see whether they can prove this.
I bought some at an avg price of $570;Selling off now is out of the question;I'm confident we will see $600 again sometime this year, might be weeks, might be months.The tough decision is whether to gamble and buy more in the low mid 400s though.If they announce something promising at macworld etc it could pay off quick
It can be dangerous to bet against mice.A stock hitting estimates and then declining is a very common story.It could be a death sentence for the stock's price, not the company, which is a common misconception people like to believe about the stock market.
Some mutual funds will be forced to sell aapl because they are no longer showing yoy growth metrics.This will make aapl less of a growth candidate.
Historically its p/b is at pretty decent low, which might now make it a value candidate.Iphone accounts for over 50% of their revenue.If you believe aapl can continue to see growth in sales of the iphone, it is a definite value purchase.
Mutual funds don't operate like regular retail investors.They will ralph lauren sale often use press or media events to close out large positions by doing the exact opposite of what everyone else is doing.
The mutual funds aren't looking at the next 2 5 years, they are looking at the next 10 years.What they see is a company that hasn't released a single new good innovation since jobs passed(The closest was the ipad mini, but other companies did the smaller tablet first), a company where 50% of their revenue comes from a single product that is starting to look dated(Iphone)And in addition is losing market share.They are also firing senior management that were critical in apple's previous success.
Jobs left a manager in charge not an innovator.Management is a very important consideration when dumping billions into anything.
Apple is not in the game in china.Seriously, all your us guys who keep posting about how apple is going to clean up in china really need to get out more.
Go get a passport, buy a ticket to china and have a look around at what is going on out there.Yes, apple will sell in china but it ain't impo going to be anything as dominant as it once was in the us.
Some other guy posted on cheap polo ralph lauren t shirts here that he has not seen people buying galaxy 3s in the us.I say to him come to europe, where the smartphone market is bigger than the us, and have a look at what people are using as their smartphones.
No offence intended but so many of you apple diehard fans have such a narrow us centric view of the world that it is, frankly, hilarious.
I actually hold the opposite view.I have cousins in honduras and the middle east, and over there apple products are still the coolest thing on the block, while they've become passe over here(Hence the narrow minded skepticism).
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